AGL Energy Limited (AGL.AX)

DCF Valuation · Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Valuation as at 2026-08-14 · see also the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen

About AGL Energy Limited

AGL Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of private electricity generation portfolio in Australia. It operates through three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company is involved in the retailing of electricity, gas and energy-related products and services to residential, small, and large business customers; sales, marketing, brand, customer contact, and call center operations; and power generation portfolio and other key assets, including coal, gas and renewable generation facilities, grid-scale batteries, natural gas storage infrastructure, and development projects.

Source: Yahoo Finance company profile · factual description, not KashVector commentary

AGL Energy Limited AGL.AX

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Price
$8.84
Market Cap
$5.94B
Free Cash Flow
-$0.42B
Beta
1.00
P/E (TTM)
7.9x
52-Week Range
$7.94–$10.63

AGL Energy Limited's price & financial trends

Annual reporting periods — this market does not have reliable quarterly data on Yahoo (either it isn't required, or coverage is incomplete), so annual is the most granular consistent series across free cash flow and dividends.

Data as at 2026-08-14

Share price · last 2 years

$8.84 -24% vs 2024-08
ASX 200 $11.61$11.52$9.73$9.32$9.58$8.84 2024-082025-012025-062025-112026-042026-08

Earnings per share (diluted) Per year

-$0.15 -111% vs FY22
$1.31-$1.88$1.05-$0.15FY22FY23FY24FY25

Free cash flow Per year

-$0.28B -148% vs FY22
$0.59B$0.29B$1.40B-$0.28BFY22FY23FY24FY25

Dividend per share Per year

$0.58 +20% vs FY22
$0.48$0.18$0.49$0.58FY22FY23FY24FY25

Value investing scale · Buffett · Dalio · Graham

Partial Fit
11 / 20 combined score

2 criteria had no data

See the full Buffett, Dalio & Graham breakdown for AGL.AX →

Intrinsic value estimate · 5-year forecast · Revenue-normalised

BEAR
$3.18
vs current $8.84
-64.0% ❌ Overvalued
BASE
$4.60
vs current $8.84
-47.9% ❌ Overvalued
BULL
$6.39
vs current $8.84
-27.7% ❌ Overvalued

Assumptions used in this valuation

Every input below is either fetched live from Yahoo Finance or a documented default — nothing is hidden.

Starting free cash flow
$0.75B
Revenue × 5.4% target margin — reported FCF unavailable
Risk-free rate
4.80% ● LIVE
Live 10-yr govt bond
Beta
1.00
Floored for non-US stocks
Equity risk premium
6.00%
Market-specific seed
Cost of debt
18.80%
Synthetic rating D, ICR 0.1x
Tax rate
25.00%
Estimated default
Capital structure
E 60% / D 40%
Market cap vs total debt
Projection horizon
5 years
+ terminal value beyond
BearBaseBull
5-yr FCF growth-6.9%-4.6%-2.3%
Terminal growth2.5%2.5%2.5%
WACC (discount rate)13.13%12.13%11.13%

Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Beta × Equity Risk Premium = 4.80% + 1.00 × 6.00% = 10.80% · WACC = weighted by 60%/40% capital structure

These numbers come from running AGL Energy Limited's cash flows through the mechanical DCF formula and assumptions above — not from any view on the news, management, or AGL.AX's competitive position. What is DCF?

Want to test your own growth or discount-rate assumptions?Open the full interactive calculator, pre-filled with AGL.AX →

More ASX stocks we've valued

Not financial advice. DCF valuations are highly sensitive to assumptions — small changes in growth rate or discount rate produce large swings in output. This is a mechanical calculation, not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.

About this valuation

Computed on 2026-08-14 from Yahoo Finance data, using the same engine as the full DCF tool and the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen. Every figure above is a point-in-time snapshot of that date — change any assumption yourself in the interactive tool for a live one.

Frequently asked questions

Is AGL Energy Limited (AGL.AX) undervalued?

The Base-case DCF estimates intrinsic value at $4.60 vs a price of $8.84 on 2026-08-14 — a -47.9% margin, so the Base case reads overvalued. This is a mechanical output, not advice.