Valuation as at 2026-09-25 · see also the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen
About BHP Group Limited
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, and South America. The company operates through three segments: Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal. It explores for copper, iron, steelmaking coal, energy coal, nickel, potash, cobalt, sulphide, ammonium sulphate, silver, gold, molybdenum, uranium, and zinc deposits.
Source: Yahoo Finance company profile · factual description, not KashVector commentary
BHP Group Limited BHP.AX
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
BHP Group Limited's price & financial trends
Annual reporting periods — this market does not have reliable quarterly data on Yahoo (either it isn't required, or coverage is incomplete), so annual is the most granular consistent series across free cash flow and dividends.
Data as at 2026-09-25
Share price · last 2 years
Earnings per share (diluted) Per year
Free cash flow Per year
Dividend per share Per year
Value investing scale · Buffett · Dalio · Graham
Solvency Check
▾ Solvency Check details
Altman Z-Score combines 5 ratios into one weighted number — Z = 1.2·X1 + 1.4·X2 + 3.3·X3 + 0.6·X4 + 1.0·X5 — then bands the result: Safe Zone above 2.99, Grey Zone 1.81–2.99, Distress Zone below 1.81. Piotroski F-Score checks 9 yes/no criteria against the prior fiscal year — profitability, leverage & liquidity, and operating efficiency — 1 point each, out of 9. Both are a measurement of the underlying numbers, not a recommendation.
Altman Z-Score — inputs
Piotroski F-Score — 9 criteria
AI Sector Correlation
A weak but present link to semiconductor stock moves.
📊 Cyclical company — this uses the average FCF margin across the last 4 years (20.5% of revenue) instead of the latest year alone, to avoid over- or under-valuing at a cycle extreme. Yahoo's data only covers up to 4 years, shorter than a full commodity cycle — a known limitation, not hidden here.
Intrinsic value estimate · 5-year forecast
Assumptions used in this valuation
Every input below is either fetched live from Yahoo Finance or a documented default — nothing is hidden.
| Bear | Base | Bull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-yr FCF growth | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| WACC (discount rate) | 9.39% | 8.39% | 7.39% |
Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Beta × Equity Risk Premium = 5.32% + 0.85 × 4.20% = 8.89% · WACC = weighted by 88%/12% capital structure
These numbers come from running BHP Group Limited's cash flows through the mechanical DCF formula and assumptions above — not from any view on the news, management, or BHP.AX's competitive position. What is DCF?
Want to test your own growth or discount-rate assumptions?Open the full interactive calculator, pre-filled with BHP.AX →
Not financial advice. DCF valuations are highly sensitive to assumptions — small changes in growth rate or discount rate produce large swings in output. This is a mechanical calculation, not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.
About this valuation
Computed on 2026-09-25 from Yahoo Finance data, using the same engine as the full DCF tool and the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen. Every figure above is a point-in-time snapshot of that date — change any assumption yourself in the interactive tool for a live one.
Frequently asked questions
Is BHP Group Limited (BHP.AX) undervalued?
The Base-case DCF estimates intrinsic value at $57.48 vs a price of $60.72 on 2026-09-25 — a -5.3% margin, so the Base case reads fairly valued. This is a mechanical output, not advice.
What is "AI Sector Correlation"?
A measure of how closely this stock's daily price movements have tracked the AI sector over the trailing 12 months, after removing the effect of general stock-market movement. It is shown against two benchmarks: a broad AI-themed ETF (AIQ) and a semiconductor ETF (SMH), the hardware side of the AI boom. It answers "does this stock move with AI-sector sentiment specifically, beyond just moving with the market overall?" — not whether the company's revenue comes from AI.
How is it calculated?
We compute daily returns for the stock, the two AI ETFs (AIQ and SMH), and an equal-weight broad-market ETF over the trailing year, then calculate the partial correlation between the stock and each AI ETF while statistically controlling for the broad-market ETF. This isolates AI-specific co-movement from ordinary market-wide moves — a stock correlated with the market generally (which most large stocks are) doesn't automatically score as AI-correlated. See the full glossary entry for the formula and its limits.
What does "Inverse" mean?
A reading of -0.20 or lower. After removing general market movement, the stock has tended to rise when the AI sector (or semiconductor stocks) fall, and fall when they rise. It is a strong link, just in the opposite direction, which is why it is coloured red like High. It describes past price behaviour, not a prediction.
What is the "AI hardware" reading, and why show two numbers?
The broad AI ETF mixes hardware, cloud and software companies, so a stock can look unrelated to it while moving strongly with, or against, semiconductor stocks. For example, some large software companies have shown a near-zero reading against the broad AI ETF but a clearly negative one against semiconductors. Showing both lets you see either pattern. See the AI Hardware Correlation guide for how the semiconductor reading works.
What do the colours mean?
The colour shows how strongly the stock's price has been tied to the AI sector, in either direction. It is not a good or bad rating. Red means a strong link: High (moves with the AI sector) or Inverse (moves against it). Amber is Moderate, green is Low, and cyan means no meaningful link (None). Red is not a quality or valuation warning.
Does a high score mean I should buy this stock?
No. This is a descriptive statistic about historical price co-movement, not a valuation judgment or a recommendation. A stock can show high AI correlation and still be overvalued, and a stock with no AI correlation can still be a sound investment for other reasons. Use it alongside the valuation and framework scores above, not in place of them.
Why might a genuinely AI-linked company still show "None"?
Correlation measures how the market has priced the stock recently, not the company's actual business exposure. A company can have a real AI-infrastructure story (for example, supplying power or components to data centres) without the market yet trading its shares in sync with AI-sector sentiment — the underlying business case and the price pattern are two different things.
Why do some international stocks score lower than expected?
Stocks listed outside the US (for example on the ASX or KRX) trade on a different calendar to the US-listed AI ETFs used for this comparison, so there are fewer directly overlapping trading days to compare. This can understate the correlation for otherwise AI-linked international companies — a known limitation of the method, not a judgment about the company.