Thematic ETF Valuation Radar

Not on this snapshot — every fund currently reads a premium to its combined look-through intrinsic value, so none is undervalued today. Betashares Video Games and Esports ETF is currently closest to fair value. Coverage and prices are updated monthly, so this can change.

The fund-weighted average premium or discount of the fund’s holdings to their own combined intrinsic value. A negative number ("premium") means the holdings collectively trade above what the models say they are worth; a positive number ("discount") means below.

No. Nothing here is financial advice and it is never a buy, sell or hold call. It is a measurement of how much optimism is priced into each theme — a starting point for research, not a verdict.

Partly the market, partly the method. The DCF is deliberately conservative on growth and caps it, so it systematically values fast-growing companies below their market price. An across-the-board premium in a strong market is normal and not on its own a sign of mispricing.

A 5-year discounted cash flow cannot price a genuine platform shift, and it penalises companies whose growth currently shows up as capital investment rather than free cash flow. Large semiconductor and cloud businesses often read as steep premiums here for that reason — it reflects the model’s known limitation as much as the price.

Primarily how much of a holding’s earnings it reinvests and the return it earns on that reinvestment (retention × ROE, averaged across its multi-year history) — cross-checked against its multi-year revenue and free-cash-flow trend, and capped at 15%. One distorted year — an earnings rebound off a depressed base — no longer drives a mature company’s projection the way a single-year figure would. Cyclical holdings (miners, oil & gas, autos) skip that cross-check and use the reinvestment-and-return figure alone, since a short cash-flow history is too easily distorted by wherever a commodity cycle happens to sit.

The share of a fund’s weight we could put a valuation on. The look-through number is computed over the covered portion only, so a fund at 75% coverage tells you less than one at 100%. Below 70% we publish no headline figure.

Broad market-cap index funds reconstitute — they drop what gets expensive — so a look-through verdict on them has little predictive value. Thematic funds are locked to their theme, which is what makes the measurement meaningful.

Monthly. Holdings come from each issuer’s published full-holdings file; prices and fundamentals are a monthly snapshot from Yahoo Finance, not a live feed.