Alcoa Corporation (AAI.AX)

DCF Valuation · Basic Materials · Aluminum

Valuation as at 2026-08-14 · see also the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen

About Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses.

Source: Yahoo Finance company profile · factual description, not KashVector commentary

Alcoa Corporation AAI.AX

Basic Materials · Aluminum

Price
$69.79
Market Cap
$18.42B
Free Cash Flow
$1.36B
Beta
1.62
P/E (TTM)
10.2x
52-Week Range
$45.26–$117.87

Alcoa Corporation's price & financial trends

Each card is labelled with its own reporting period — quarterly where Yahoo provides it for this market, annual otherwise.

Data as at 2026-08-14

Share price · last 2 years

$69.79 +46% vs 2024-08
ASX 200 $47.85$57.01$45.00$63.30$87.48$69.79 2024-082025-012025-062025-112026-042026-08

Earnings per share (diluted) Per quarter

$1.53 -26% vs Q1 '25
$2.07$0.62$0.85$1.60$1.53Q1 '25Q2 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26

Free cash flow Per quarter

$0.42B +18% vs Q2 '25
$0.36B-$0.07B$0.29B-$0.30B$0.42BQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26

Dividend per share Per quarter

$0.10 -6% vs Q2 '25
$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10$0.10Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26

Value investing scale · Buffett · Dalio · Graham

Strong Fit
16 / 20 combined score

See the full Buffett, Dalio & Graham breakdown for AAI.AX →

Intrinsic value estimate · 5-year forecast

BEAR
$63.27
vs current $69.79
-9.3% ⚠️ Fairly Valued
BASE
$114.13
vs current $69.79
+63.5% ✅ Undervalued
BULL
$153.85
vs current $69.79
+120.5% ✅ Undervalued

Assumptions used in this valuation

Every input below is either fetched live from Yahoo Finance or a documented default — nothing is hidden.

Starting free cash flow
$1.36B
Reported free cash flow (Yahoo)
Risk-free rate
4.80% ● LIVE
Live 10-yr govt bond
Beta
1.62
Floored for non-US stocks
Equity risk premium
6.00%
Market-specific seed
Cost of debt
6.10%
Synthetic rating A-, ICR 4.8x
Tax rate
25.00%
Estimated default
Capital structure
E 85% / D 15%
Market cap vs total debt
Projection horizon
5 years
+ terminal value beyond
BearBaseBull
5-yr FCF growth12.5%25.0%30.0%
Terminal growth2.5%2.5%2.5%
WACC (discount rate)14.08%13.08%12.08%

Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Beta × Equity Risk Premium = 4.80% + 1.62 × 6.00% = 14.54% · WACC = weighted by 85%/15% capital structure

These numbers come from running Alcoa Corporation's cash flows through the mechanical DCF formula and assumptions above — not from any view on the news, management, or AAI.AX's competitive position. What is DCF?

Want to test your own growth or discount-rate assumptions?Open the full interactive calculator, pre-filled with AAI.AX →

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Not financial advice. DCF valuations are highly sensitive to assumptions — small changes in growth rate or discount rate produce large swings in output. This is a mechanical calculation, not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.

About this valuation

Computed on 2026-08-14 from Yahoo Finance data, using the same engine as the full DCF tool and the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen. Every figure above is a point-in-time snapshot of that date — change any assumption yourself in the interactive tool for a live one.

Frequently asked questions

Is Alcoa Corporation (AAI.AX) undervalued?

The Base-case DCF estimates intrinsic value at $114.13 vs a price of $69.79 on 2026-08-14 — a +63.5% margin, so the Base case reads undervalued. This is a mechanical output, not advice.