Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH.AX)

Valuation as at 2026-09-25 · see also the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen

About Macmahon Holdings Limited

Macmahon Holdings Limited engages in the process of surface mining, underground mining and mining support, and civil infrastructure services to mining companies in Australia and Southeast Asia. The company operates in four segments: Surface Mining, Underground Mining, International Mining, and Civil Infrastructure. It offers surface mining services, such as bulk and selective mining, mine planning and analysis, drill and blast, crushing and screening, fixed plant maintenance, water management, equipment operation and maintenance, technology, safety solutions; and underground mining services, including mine development and production, raise and production drilling, cable bolting, shotcreting, remote shaft lining, paste fill, shaft sinking and fit out; and engineering services, including shaft lining and maintenance, ore pass liners, winder refurbishment, conveying, crushing, materials handling, emergency egress systems, pump stations and rising mains, and site workshops and infrastructure.

Source: Yahoo Finance company profile · factual description, not KashVector commentary

Macmahon Holdings Limited MAH.AX

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Price
$1.13
Market Cap
$2.43B
Free Cash Flow
$0.14B 4yr avg margin
Beta
1.05
P/E (TTM)
22.5x
52-Week Range
$0.40–$1.16

Macmahon Holdings Limited's price & financial trends

Annual reporting periods — this market does not have reliable quarterly data on Yahoo (either it isn't required, or coverage is incomplete), so annual is the most granular consistent series across free cash flow and dividends.

Data as at 2026-09-25

Share price · last 2 years

$1.13 +247% vs 2024-09
ASX 200 $0.32$0.29$0.30$0.67$1.00$1.13 2024-092025-022025-072025-122026-052026-09

Earnings per share (diluted) Per year

$0.05 +70% vs FY23
$0.03$0.02$0.03$0.05FY23FY24FY25FY26

Free cash flow Per year

$0.15B +111% vs FY23
$0.07B$0.12B$0.16B$0.15BFY23FY24FY25FY26

Dividend per share Per year

$0.02 +185% vs FY23
$0.01$0.01$0.01$0.02FY23FY24FY25FY26

Value investing scale · Buffett · Dalio · Graham

Partial Fit
10 / 20 combined score

See the full Buffett, Dalio & Graham breakdown for MAH.AX →

Solvency Check

Altman Z3.53 · Safe
Piotroski F7/9 · Improving
▾ Solvency Check details

Altman Z-Score combines 5 ratios into one weighted number — Z = 1.2·X1 + 1.4·X2 + 3.3·X3 + 0.6·X4 + 1.0·X5 — then bands the result: Safe Zone above 2.99, Grey Zone 1.81–2.99, Distress Zone below 1.81. Piotroski F-Score checks 9 yes/no criteria against the prior fiscal year — profitability, leverage & liquidity, and operating efficiency — 1 point each, out of 9. Both are a measurement of the underlying numbers, not a recommendation.

Altman Z-Score — inputs

X1 · Working Capital / Total Assets0.11
X2 · Retained Earnings / Total Assets0.11
X3 · EBIT / Total Assets0.10
X4 · Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities2.38
X5 · Sales / Total Assets1.49

Piotroski F-Score — 9 criteria

Positive return on assets5.7%
Positive operating cash flow300,758,000
Return on assets improved year over year5.7% vs 4.2%
Operating cash flow exceeds net income300,758,000 vs 101,135,000
Leverage decreased year over year23.9% vs 24.2%
Current ratio improved year over year1.30x vs 1.16x
No new share dilution2,142,903,004 vs 2,133,283,969
Gross margin improved year over year69.6% vs 74.3%
Asset turnover improved year over year1.49x vs 1.38x

AI Sector Correlation

AI sector (AIQ) 0.19 Low

A weak but present link to AI-sector price moves.

How it's calculated →

AI hardware (semiconductors, SMH) 0.20 Moderate

Moderate co-movement with semiconductor stocks, beyond what broad-market exposure explains.

How it's calculated →

📊 Cyclical company — this uses the average FCF margin across the last 4 years (5.5% of revenue) instead of the latest year alone, to avoid over- or under-valuing at a cycle extreme. Yahoo's data only covers up to 4 years, shorter than a full commodity cycle — a known limitation, not hidden here.

Intrinsic value estimate · 5-year forecast

BEAR
$0.90
vs current $1.13
-20.5% ❌ Overvalued
BASE
$1.22
vs current $1.13
+8.1% ⚠️ Fairly Valued
BULL
$1.69
vs current $1.13
+50.1% ✅ Undervalued

Assumptions used in this valuation

Every input below is either fetched live from Yahoo Finance or a documented default — nothing is hidden.

Starting free cash flow
$0.14B
Cyclical company — average FCF margin across the last 4 years (5.5% of revenue), not the latest year alone, to avoid over/under-valuing at a cycle extreme
Risk-free rate
5.32% ● LIVE
Live 10-yr govt bond
Beta
1.05
Floored for non-US stocks
Equity risk premium
4.20%
Market-specific seed
Cost of debt
6.47%
Synthetic rating A, ICR 6.6x
Tax rate
25.00%
Estimated default
Capital structure
E 85% / D 15%
Market cap vs total debt
Projection horizon
5 years
+ terminal value beyond
BearBaseBull
5-yr FCF growth3.5%7.0%10.5%
Terminal growth2.5%2.5%2.5%
WACC (discount rate)10.02%9.02%8.02%

Cost of Equity = Risk-free rate + Beta × Equity Risk Premium = 5.32% + 1.05 × 4.20% = 9.74% · WACC = weighted by 85%/15% capital structure

These numbers come from running Macmahon Holdings Limited's cash flows through the mechanical DCF formula and assumptions above — not from any view on the news, management, or MAH.AX's competitive position. What is DCF?

Want to test your own growth or discount-rate assumptions?Open the full interactive calculator, pre-filled with MAH.AX →

Not financial advice. DCF valuations are highly sensitive to assumptions — small changes in growth rate or discount rate produce large swings in output. This is a mechanical calculation, not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell.

About this valuation

Computed on 2026-09-25 from Yahoo Finance data, using the same engine as the full DCF tool and the ASX 300 Most Undervalued screen. Every figure above is a point-in-time snapshot of that date — change any assumption yourself in the interactive tool for a live one.

Frequently asked questions

Is Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH.AX) undervalued?

The Base-case DCF estimates intrinsic value at $1.22 vs a price of $1.13 on 2026-09-25 — a +8.1% margin, so the Base case reads fairly valued. This is a mechanical output, not advice.

What is "AI Sector Correlation"?

A measure of how closely this stock's daily price movements have tracked the AI sector over the trailing 12 months, after removing the effect of general stock-market movement. It is shown against two benchmarks: a broad AI-themed ETF (AIQ) and a semiconductor ETF (SMH), the hardware side of the AI boom. It answers "does this stock move with AI-sector sentiment specifically, beyond just moving with the market overall?" — not whether the company's revenue comes from AI.

How is it calculated?

We compute daily returns for the stock, the two AI ETFs (AIQ and SMH), and an equal-weight broad-market ETF over the trailing year, then calculate the partial correlation between the stock and each AI ETF while statistically controlling for the broad-market ETF. This isolates AI-specific co-movement from ordinary market-wide moves — a stock correlated with the market generally (which most large stocks are) doesn't automatically score as AI-correlated. See the full glossary entry for the formula and its limits.

What does "Inverse" mean?

A reading of -0.20 or lower. After removing general market movement, the stock has tended to rise when the AI sector (or semiconductor stocks) fall, and fall when they rise. It is a strong link, just in the opposite direction, which is why it is coloured red like High. It describes past price behaviour, not a prediction.

What is the "AI hardware" reading, and why show two numbers?

The broad AI ETF mixes hardware, cloud and software companies, so a stock can look unrelated to it while moving strongly with, or against, semiconductor stocks. For example, some large software companies have shown a near-zero reading against the broad AI ETF but a clearly negative one against semiconductors. Showing both lets you see either pattern. See the AI Hardware Correlation guide for how the semiconductor reading works.

What do the colours mean?

The colour shows how strongly the stock's price has been tied to the AI sector, in either direction. It is not a good or bad rating. Red means a strong link: High (moves with the AI sector) or Inverse (moves against it). Amber is Moderate, green is Low, and cyan means no meaningful link (None). Red is not a quality or valuation warning.

Does a high score mean I should buy this stock?

No. This is a descriptive statistic about historical price co-movement, not a valuation judgment or a recommendation. A stock can show high AI correlation and still be overvalued, and a stock with no AI correlation can still be a sound investment for other reasons. Use it alongside the valuation and framework scores above, not in place of them.

Why might a genuinely AI-linked company still show "None"?

Correlation measures how the market has priced the stock recently, not the company's actual business exposure. A company can have a real AI-infrastructure story (for example, supplying power or components to data centres) without the market yet trading its shares in sync with AI-sector sentiment — the underlying business case and the price pattern are two different things.

Why do some international stocks score lower than expected?

Stocks listed outside the US (for example on the ASX or KRX) trade on a different calendar to the US-listed AI ETFs used for this comparison, so there are fewer directly overlapping trading days to compare. This can understate the correlation for otherwise AI-linked international companies — a known limitation of the method, not a judgment about the company.